1. Money & Debt
The economy’s oxygen—and its chokehold. When debt climbs faster than productivity, systems become brittle, constraining policy and creating market risks.
For the first time ever, I'm skirting that edge myself—paycheck to paycheck, juggling debt, even wondering if it's time to sell my car or the van. I'm glued to my stocks like they're a lifeline, because the pressure is that real.
Key Insight:
CBO projections of rising federal debt aren't a future problem—they materially constrain policy and create tail-risks for markets today.
2. Internal Strain
Political fragmentation from within. When large parts of society feel excluded and institutions seem rigged, trust evaporates, leading to polarization and decay.
Charlie Kirk just dying has ripped open another front in that divide. People either sanctify him or spit venom, and that tug-of-war makes the strain feel like it's happening in my own neighborhood.
Key Insight:
The biggest risk for many democracies isn't an external army—it's internal decay. Plan for weaker public goods and more regulatory surprises.
3. Geopolitics
The outer engine of great-power cycles. The U.S.-China tech competition directly impacts supply chains, cost structures, and market access for every tech product.
The trade war with China feels like a ticking clock. Shipments already on the water are the last gasp of the old rules, and I’m bracing for October when the costs hit for real.
Key Insight:
Policy moves like export controls aren't background noise—they are the new rules of engagement. They will change your cost structure and market access.
4. Nature & Shocks
The wildcards we don't control. Pandemics, superstorms, and climate events can re-order politics and demographics far faster than any policy change.
California’s on fire, hurricanes are spinning up like clockwork, tornadoes keep tearing through towns, and everyone keeps whispering about the most brutal winter yet. Day after day it feels like nature is throwing haymakers.
Key Insight:
Redundancy in people, compute, and cash is no longer optional—it’s the operational baseline for resilience and survival in a volatile world.
5. Invention & Tech Competition
The decisive battlefield. Whoever masters tomorrow’s compute, AI, and production technology gains a decisive advantage across commerce, military, and logistics. It's both an elevator for humanity and an arena for power.
I'm living in that future already. AI has rewired how I work and think—I can't stop using it, and I don't even want to. It's the one force that feels like a lever I can still pull.
Key Insight:
Access to GPUs, talent, and compute is no longer just a business problem—it's a national security problem wearing a business suit.